All models are wrong. Some models are useful.
I’ve heard this pithy little quip on the No Agenda podcast and read it on Instapundit. It must be true.
And… It fits my priors of models, data, and, statistics.
Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category
Wuhan Bat Soup Flu Apocalypse Day 18, Part III
Tuesday, March 31st, 2020Day 18 of the Wuhan Bat Soup Flu Lockdown
Tuesday, March 31st, 2020Today marks the end of my employment with the German cabinet company. They have taken the opportunity presented by this mess to tell me they have eliminated my position. I find it an odd choice to let me go. I do understand the economics and don’t really hold a grudge, but is strange. There were two of us in the showroom. Me and my associate who was outside sales and marketing. He’s good at that. Very good. But he doesn’t know a drawer from a door. He can’t draw a kitchen. He can’t order a kitchen. He can’t supervise the installation of a kitchen.
In short, if you were to pick one of us to remain on staff, I think most people would pick me.
I also had five years of seniority on him. But seniority seems to be more of a handicap these days than an asset.
So… the geniuses that run my little outfit are going to staff a brand new showroom with some guy that doesn’t know anything about the company, the product, or the technical aspects of the work.
Good luck!
Day 17 of the Bat Flu Soup Pandemic Lock Down, Post III
Monday, March 30th, 2020I would like to remind people that the government has no authority over healthy people.
Day 17 of the Bat Flu Soup Pandemic Lock Down, Post II
Monday, March 30th, 2020After 2 1/2 weeks together. SWMBO and I have caught up on everything I’ve done wrong for the past 29 years.
Wu Flu Pandemic Lockdown, Day 17
Monday, March 30th, 2020The shit just got real.
I’ll explain after the video break:
I laughed out loud at that.
The shit got real here as I’ve been fired. The manager of my little outfit decided it was time for me to go.
The cellmates here at Cellblock H are otherwise doing well.
I will have more to say on my position being eliminated tomorrow or some other day. Under normal circumstances I would say I would never be fired, but this weasel manager of my little company took advantage of the Bat Soup Flu pandemic to get rid of someone that doesn’t bow low enough to his leadership. He is an idiot.
Wu Flu Pandemic Day 16 of Social Distancing
Sunday, March 29th, 2020I don’t like the phrase Social Distancing. I can go with Physical Distancing. Social Distancing sounds like you are trying to cut people off from your friendship.
The occupants of Cellblock H are doing fine.
In case anyone is interested.
While this pandemic seems to be dangerous. I’m still not convinced this economic shut down is warranted.
Chinese Bat Soup Flu House Arrest, Day 15
Saturday, March 28th, 2020Bookworm gets it: Coronavirus panic makes no sense so I’ve got a few theories
Earlier this morning, I got a nice scare from Arnold Kling: The Inflation Virus. Now is a good time to remember my skepticism and to predict that he’s probably wrong too.
Locked in Cellblock H this morning with rain in the forecast. What a great Saturday.
Bat Soup Flu Apocalypse, Day 14
Friday, March 27th, 2020The interesting part of this catastrophe today is the definite split among people I think are rational and reasonable. I don’t agree with all that any individual says, but generally, up until today, I’ve found many people to be very rational and reasonable.
But now I have my doubts.
Steve Sailer has gone off the rails.
Greg Cochran is with Sailer.
google them on your own.
My only refuge, and think about this for yourselves, is how wrong the experts have been about everything before today. One day they’ll probably be correct. Today is not that day.
Chinese Bat Soup Flu Pandemic, Day 13 of the Apocalypse
Thursday, March 26th, 2020Work continues, at 60% of the former pay rate.
I can’t wait to see the bonuses paid at the big banks this time next year.
Here is another contrarian: William H. Briggs, Statistician to the Stars!
My skepticism about the real danger posed by the Kung Flu has been shaped by guys like Briggs, Ioannidis, and Aaron Ginn (both linked below), years ago. (You’ll have to go elsewhere, such as ZeroHedge, to find the Ginn post as Medium took it down. Ginn suffers from the original sin of being a Romney staffer, so everything he says is an obvious lie according to our betters.)
Things are good in Cellblock H.
Going to be on a conference call with the head lackey for the Chinese ownership group tomorrow. The Germans never really tell you anything. Their management style is to have you in a very large dark room and to only light the exact spot where they want you to work. You are not to know anything about the other items and activities off in the shadows of that large room.
It’s a good thing that no one reads this blog. I can vent without getting fired.
Chinese Bat Soup Flu Apocalypse Day 12, Post II
Wednesday, March 25th, 2020I was notified today that I’m going to receive a 40% cut in pay.
This is my penance for not being a globalist.
Motherfuckers.
As per the usual, there is a bail out for the banks and airlines working through Congress. It will suck for those of us that are actual productive taxpayers.
The banks and airlines will do fine. As will Boeing. This despite Boeing hiring shitty foreign based software people that effed up the 737 Max
Dinner in Cellblock H was nice.